An assessment conducted by International Medical Corps

Tyler Marshall, International Medical Corps, 202-828-5155, tmarshall@imcworldwide.org

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan. 30 /Standard Newswire/ -- Over one million residents of Baghdad could be driven from their homes in the next six months if Iraq's sectarian violence continues at its current level, according to an in-depth assessment conducted by the Santa Monica-based humanitarian assistance group, International Medical Corps.

Photo: Children in Nasiriyah, by Sheri Fink; hi-resolution version

The study finds that residents of the Iraq capital account for about 80% of the 546,078 Iraqis civilians who have already fled their homes because of the sectarian fighting in the 11 months since the Feb. 2006 bombing of the Holy Shrine in Samara. The pace of those fleeing is accelerating at a dramatic rate. Since November alone, the number of those displaced has jumped by 43%.

The humanitarian situation is deteriorating at an increasingly rapid rate and there are few indicators of any change in this trend in the short term. While often over-used, the words "humanitarian crisis" accurately describe conditions now unfolding inside Iraq. Long-term displacement seriously reduces the ability of many Iraqis to sustain their livelihood, while the disruption to the lives of IDPs and restricted movements caused by sectarian fighting deny particularly women, children, and minorities of access to basic healthcare services.

"It is a brewing humanitarian crisis of enormous proportions that is being overshadowed by the fighting itself and the debate surrounding the war," said Nancy Aossey, IMC's President and CEO. "It must be acknowledged and addressed."

The population movement constitutes a large-scale reshaping of the city's neighborhoods along sectarian lines.  Some of the displaced have sought refuge with family or friends in "sectarian friendly" neighborhoods within the capital, while others have fled the capital altogether to outlying governorates.

Unlike the temporary displacement of civilians that occurred prior to Feb. 2006—displacements often caused by military operations such as those conducted in 2004-5 in and around Falluja and Tal—the  movements we are tracking appear to be more permanent. The sale or abandonment of real property is one piece of evidence that suggests this permanence.

Only a minority of those fleeing are leaving the country, the study finds. Those trapped inside Iraq are officially called "internally displaced persons", or IDPs, rather than refugees by governments and relief organizations.

The study's focus is on Baghdad because it is the largest population center in Iraq that still contains significant concentrations of both Shia and Sunni Muslims. Those forced to move, either within Baghdad or from Baghdad to outlying governorates comprise about 80% of Iraq's IDP population. That percentage is expected to climb higher in the coming months. Other areas of Iraq where a sectarian mix remains and where further IDP movement is expected are Baquba, Basra, and the governorates of Saladin and Nineva.

International Medical Corps is one of the few non-profit relief groups currently working in Iraq engaged in large scale humanitarian relief and development efforts that include programs addressing primary healthcare, nutrition, mental health, water and economic needs of displaced Iraqi civilians.

IMC teams operate in 16 of Iraq's 18 governorates.  Data for the study was gathered from several different sources, including Iraqi government entities, local tribal and religious leaders and on-going door-to-door, neighborhood-by-neighborhood interviews by IMC staff in the capital and in the outlying governorates where many of the displaced families and individuals have relocated.