Independent analysis of the church’s own data projects roughly 1,200 congregations will close, merge, or cease independent operation by 2036, despite denomination’s claim that attendance is “stabilizing”
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Anglican Watch
Oct. 23, 2026
ALEXANDRIA, Va., Oct. 23, 2026 /Standard Newswire/ — Anglican Watch, the independent watchdog covering The Episcopal Church, today forecast that roughly one in six existing Episcopal parishes and missions will close, merge, or stop functioning as independent congregations during the next ten years.
The forecast, published today, projects a central estimate of about 1,200 congregational losses between now and 2036, with a reasonable range of 700 to 1,800. The denomination currently reports 6,673 open parishes and missions.
The analysis follows the October 15 release of The Episcopal Church’s 2025 Parochial Report, which the church’s press office characterized as showing attendance “stabilizing.” Anglican Watch argues that the headline obscures the structural problem beneath it.
“Attendance may be stabilizing. The underlying problem isn’t,” said Eric Bonetti of Anglican Watch. “The Episcopal Church has thousands of congregations with two or three dozen people in the pews, a membership that skews heavily toward retirees, and a vast inventory of aging buildings. You don’t need a crystal ball to see what happens when those three facts meet.”
Key findings from the church’s own data:
• Average in-person Sunday attendance fell from 413,034 in 2024 to 407,001 in 2025 — the first decline since the post-pandemic rebound — and is down roughly a third from nearly 600,000 a decade ago.
• Membership has dropped below 1.5 million for the first time, to 1,425,065.
• Median in-person Sunday attendance is 37. Roughly 60 percent of congregations have average attendance of 50 or fewer; nearly a third have 25 or fewer.
• A 2024 Hartford Institute survey found 57 percent of Episcopal attenders are 65 or older; the median age is 60.
• In 2024, transition ministers reported an estimated 527 open priest positions and about 122 available candidates. More than half of Episcopal priests now serve part time.
Anglican Watch’s forecast does not rely on extrapolating the current closure rate — a net 81 congregations lost between 2023 and 2025. Instead, it models what happens as very small congregations lose key leaders and donors to age-related attrition over the coming decade.
“A congregation of 25 doesn’t have to lose 25 people to become nonviable,” Bonetti said. “It may only have to lose five. Today’s 75-year-old senior warden will be 85 in 2036.”
The analysis also warns that many losses will not be recorded as closures. Congregations will instead “merge,” become “worshipping communities,” share clergy, or be absorbed into regional ministries — ceasing to function as independent parishes without any formal closure.
Anglican Watch notes that the forecast is its own, not an official church projection, and that larger congregations, endowments, and alternative clergy models may allow some small churches to survive. But the organization says none of that changes the basic arithmetic.
The full analysis, with sources, is available here.
About Anglican Watch
Founded in 2015, Anglican Watch is the unofficial watchdog of the Episcopal Church. Covering both sexual and non-sexual abuse, the organization addresses misconduct in both the Episcopal Church and other faith traditions.
SOURCE Anglican Watch
CONTACT: Eric Bonetti, 240-331-6977, eric@anglicanwatch.com